Lask Linz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 1). Kick-off is Friday 28 July 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rapid Vienna away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Lask Linz's games and 80% of Rapid Vienna's (from Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 69% and Rapid Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 59%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lask Linz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.36 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.980 / defence 1.000 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.976 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.349. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 22 games and Rapid Vienna's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.62 | Draw 3.86 | Rapid Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 60% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Lask Linz 22 games, Rapid Vienna 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 1 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 July 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lask Linz 1.36 / Rapid Vienna 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.980 / def 1.000 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.976 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Rapid Vienna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 28 July 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 38% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 22 games and Rapid Vienna's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.86
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
Rapid Vienna xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.32 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 14W 12D 6L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 12W 6D 14L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.69 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 16 home games (9W 3D 4L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 2D 9L from their last 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.56 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 66%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
Rapid Vienna
Pre-Season
Lask Linz (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
Rapid Vienna
Pre-Season
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.88 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
1
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 69%, Rapid Vienna at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Lask Linz and 62% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Lask Linz's games and 62% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lask Linz's matches and 62% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 75% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.36 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, Rapid Vienna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.69 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.