Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Friday 25 October 2024
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 14 fixtures on Friday 25 October 2024. Casa Pia vs Nacional sits top on 72% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 72% down to 57%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Premier League supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Primeira Liga · Portugal
72%
Championship · England
69%
Premier League · Ukraine
67%
Premier League · Ukraine
65%
Premier Division · Ireland
64%
Premier League · England
63%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
63%
Premier Division · Ireland
61%
Premier Division · Ireland
60%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
60%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
59%
Ligue 2 · France
59%
Serie A · Brazil
58%
Premier Division · Ireland
57%
Showing top 14 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Under 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Friday 25 October 2024?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Casa Pia vs Nacional at 72% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.