Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 10 March 2024
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
19 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 10 March 2024. Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano sits top on 69% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 69% down to 55%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 19 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 58%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
La Liga · Spain
69%
La Liga · Spain
68%
Premier League · Russia
64%
K League 1 · South-Korea
64%
Primera División · Chile
64%
Bundesliga · Austria
63%
Ligue 1 · France
62%
Süper Lig · Turkey
62%
Ligue 1 · France
61%
Premier League · Russia
60%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
60%
Premier League · Russia
60%
Bundesliga · Austria
59%
Ligue 1 · France
59%
Serie A · Italy
58%
K League 1 · South-Korea
58%
K League 1 · South-Korea
57%
Championship · England
56%
Super League · China
55%
Showing top 19 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 10 March 2024?
19 fixtures met the criteria, led by Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano at 69% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.