Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Tuesday 26 December 2023
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
18 matches cleared our threshold on Tuesday 26 December 2023. The strongest reading belongs to Spezia vs Modena at 74% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 74% down to 55%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Serie B supplies five of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Of the 18 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the under 2.5 goals market — 67%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie B · Italy
74%
League One · England
71%
Serie B · Italy
70%
Championship · England
68%
Serie B · Italy
68%
Serie B · Italy
68%
League One · England
66%
Championship · England
65%
Championship · England
64%
Serie B · Italy
64%
Championship · England
63%
League Two · England
63%
Serie B · Italy
63%
League One · England
62%
Championship · England
57%
League One · England
56%
League One · England
56%
League Two · England
55%
Showing top 18 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Tuesday 26 December 2023?
18 fixtures met the criteria, led by Spezia vs Modena at 74% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.