Cardiff 2-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cardiff face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cardiff at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cardiff are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cardiff against 1.20 for Plymouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 39% | Plymouth 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cardiff surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and Plymouth 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.880 / defence 0.904 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.201. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Cardiff's last 69 games and Plymouth's last 23.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.84 | Draw 3.54 | Plymouth 5.77. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cardiff 40% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 24 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Cardiff 1.43 / Plymouth 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.880 / def 0.904 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Plymouth xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Plymouth kick off?
Cardiff vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Cardiff 2 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Cardiff vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Plymouth part of?
Cardiff vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 54% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cardiff and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Cardiff vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.63x) against Cardiff's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 69 games and Plymouth's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.54
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.11
0.68
Plymouth xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.68 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff's recent record stands at 23W 13D 33L from 69 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 38W 14D 17L across 69 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 12W 8D 14L from their last 34 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 11W 11D 12L across their last 34 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.72 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
Cardiff (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Cardiff vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 13D 33L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 38W 14D 17L in their last 69 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Plymouth away?
Cardiff's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.29 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Plymouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cardiff and Plymouth, the earliest from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won Cardiff 5-0 Plymouth on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 47%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cardiff) and 59% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Plymouth in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cardiff's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cardiff's recent games and 59% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Cardiff's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Plymouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Plymouth finished level at 2-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and Plymouth 0.68 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Plymouth attack 0.63 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 39%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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