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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 18 March 2023

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 18 March 2023. Walsall vs Gillingham led the list at 83% in the League Two. The shortlist runs from 83% down to 66%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

League Two supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · England 83%

✓ Under 2.5 83% ✓ BTTS No 74% ✓ Walsall Clean Sheet 55%

League Two · England 77%

✓ Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 70% ✓ Northampton Clean Sheet 54%

League Two · England 75%

Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 69% Leyton Orient Clean Sheet 56%

Bundesliga · Germany 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 64%

Ligue 2 · France 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Serie B · Italy 73%

✓ Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 64%

Super League 1 · Greece 72%

✓ Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 60%

League Two · England 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 63%

Premier League · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 68% Chelsea Clean Sheet 55%

#10

League One · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 62%

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League One · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 62%

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Serie B · Italy 70%

Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 62%

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Serie B · Italy 69%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 60%

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Super League 1 · Greece 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62%

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Premier League · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

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Serie B · Italy 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

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League One · England 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 59%

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K League 1 · South-Korea 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 57%

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Primeira Liga · Portugal 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 59%

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Eredivisie · Netherlands 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 59%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 18 March 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Walsall vs Gillingham at 83% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.