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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Thursday 29 December 2022

Mon 26 Tue 27 Wed 28 Thu 29 Fri 30 Sat 31 Sun 1

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

19 fixtures cleared the bar on Thursday 29 December 2022. Sutton Utd vs Gillingham sits top on 75% in the League Two. The shortlist runs from 75% down to 55%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

League Two supplies five of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 19 fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 37%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · England 75%

Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 72% Sutton Utd Clean Sheet 60%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Championship · England 73%

✓ Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 65%

League Two · England 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%

League One · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Ligue 1 · France 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

League Two · England 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 57%

League Two · England 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 56%

Championship · England 62%

Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#10

League Two · England 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 57%

#11

League One · England 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#12

Championship · England 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 56%

#13

League Two · England 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 53%

#14

League One · England 59%

✓ Under 2.5 59% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#15

League Two · England 59%

Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 54%

#16

League One · England 58%

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Championship · England 56%

Under 2.5 56% BTTS No 53%

#18

League One · England 55%

#19

Super League 1 · Greece 55%

✓ Under 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS Yes 53%

Showing top 19 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Thursday 29 December 2022?

19 fixtures met the criteria, led by Sutton Utd vs Gillingham at 75% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.