Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 4 September 2022
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 4 September 2022. Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo sits top on 81% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 59%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Serie A supplies four of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 70%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie A · Brazil
81%
Serie A · Brazil
78%
Serie A · Brazil
73%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
72%
Super League 1 · Greece
70%
La Liga · Spain
69%
Canadian Premier League · Canada
67%
Serie A · Italy
66%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
65%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
65%
Serie A · Brazil
64%
La Liga · Spain
63%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
63%
Premier League · Ukraine
62%
La Liga · Spain
60%
Premier League · Russia
60%
Super League 1 · Greece
60%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
60%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
59%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
59%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 4 September 2022?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo at 81% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.