Chornomorets 1-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inhulets make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Inhulets have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Inhulets have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 58% versus Inhulets 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 63% | Inhulets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.05 xG and Inhulets 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.848 / defence 1.021 | Inhulets attack 0.935 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.213. Data: 20 Chornomorets games / 19 Inhulets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 38%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 60% | Inhulets 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (19 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Chornomorets 1.05 / Inhulets 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.848 / def 1.021 | Inhulets attack 0.935 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Inhulets xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Inhulets kick off?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Inhulets part of?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 33% chance of winning, Inhulets a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chornomorets and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.85x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.94x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (20/19 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.45
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Inhulets xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.16 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets come into this having played 19 games, going 3W 6D 10L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.74 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chornomorets's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.79 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Inhulets away?
Chornomorets's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.90 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Inhulets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 60%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 40% of games; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chornomorets's games and 50% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Inhulets tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and Inhulets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Inhulets finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.05 xG and Inhulets 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Inhulets attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/19 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 33% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 38%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 63%, Inhulets 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.79 PPG, Inhulets 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.