Over 3.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 3.5 probability — Monday 29 September 2025
Over 3.5 goals requires at least 4 goals — a higher-risk, higher-reward market. Our prediction model sums all scorelines with 4 or more total goals to calculate this probability. Fixtures here are the most attacking matchups of the day, ideal for both teams to score accumulators and big-game scoring markets.
16 matches cleared our threshold on Monday 29 September 2025. HJK Helsinki vs Ilves led the list at 62% in the Veikkausliiga. The shortlist runs from 62% down to 26%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Eerste Divisie supplies four of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Of the 16 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the over 3.5 goals market — 62%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Superettan · Sweden
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eliteserien · Norway
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Süper Lig · Turkey
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Superettan · Sweden
Ligue 2 · France
Super League 1 · Greece
Showing top 16 fixtures by over 3.5 goals probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 3.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 3.5 Goals market mean?
Over 3.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 4 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 3.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 3.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 4 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 3.5 Goals on Monday 29 September 2025?
16 fixtures met the criteria, led by HJK Helsinki vs Ilves at 62% over 3.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the highest over 3.5 probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 3.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.