🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sandefjord (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Sandefjord.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sandefjord make the trip to Haugesund Stadion to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 29 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Haugesund have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Haugesund's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sandefjord (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Sandefjord are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Haugesund 2W, Sandefjord 4W, 3D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–4 with Sandefjord winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 49% of games.

Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 39% versus Sandefjord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 53% | Sandefjord 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.14 xG and Sandefjord 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.620 / defence 1.492 | Sandefjord attack 0.873 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.324. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Haugesund games / 51 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Haugesund 25% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 51%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 1.96. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Sandefjord 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights