Over 3.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 3.5 probability — Sunday 17 September 2023
Over 3.5 goals requires at least 4 goals — a higher-risk, higher-reward market. Our prediction model sums all scorelines with 4 or more total goals to calculate this probability. Fixtures here are the most attacking matchups of the day, ideal for both teams to score accumulators and big-game scoring markets.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 17 September 2023. SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach led the list at 63% in the Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 63% down to 35%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the over 3.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Bundesliga · Germany
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Eliteserien · Norway
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Ligue 1 · France
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Premier League · Russia
Ligue 1 · France
Eliteserien · Norway
La Liga · Spain
Challenger Pro League · Belgium
Eliteserien · Norway
Eliteserien · Norway
Bundesliga · Germany
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Bundesliga · Austria
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Showing top 20 fixtures by over 3.5 goals probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 3.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 3.5 Goals market mean?
Over 3.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 4 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 3.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 3.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 4 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 3.5 Goals on Sunday 17 September 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach at 63% over 3.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the highest over 3.5 probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 3.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.