Excelsior 0-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Almere City FC travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Almere City FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.30 PPG, Almere City FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, Almere City FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 47% versus Almere City FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 60% | Almere City FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.037 / defence 1.077 | Almere City FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.533. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Excelsior games / 4 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Almere City FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.74 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 72% | xG Excelsior 2.74 / Almere City FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.037 / def 1.077 | Almere City FC attack 0.846 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.822 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Almere City FC xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Almere City FC kick off?
Excelsior vs Almere City FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Excelsior 0 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Excelsior vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Almere City FC part of?
Excelsior vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 64% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Excelsior and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Almere City FC in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.74. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
64%
1.55
19%
5.14
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Excelsior xG
Total xG
4.14
1.40
Almere City FC xG
1.55
64%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
6%
15.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
1%
96.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.40 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 7D 21L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.47 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Excelsior
2
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Almere City FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Almere City FC 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 53%, Almere City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Excelsior) and 37% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 42%; Excelsior have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Excelsior's recent matches and 47% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Excelsior's recent games and 37% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Excelsior and Almere City FC drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.40 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Almere City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.45, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 64% | Draw 19% | Almere City FC 16%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, Almere City FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.