First Half Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Thursday 28 September 2023
First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.
The model shortlists eight fixtures on Thursday 28 September 2023. AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles led the list at 84% in the Eredivisie. The shortlist runs from 84% down to 75%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
The shortlist spans seven different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the eight fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the first half goals market — 88%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Eredivisie · Netherlands
84%
La Liga · Spain
81%
Serie A · Italy
80%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
78%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
76%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
76%
Süper Lig · Turkey
75%
Serie A · Italy
75%
Showing top 8 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Predictions by country
UK Football Predictions
Spanish Football Predictions
Italian Football Predictions
German Football Predictions
French Football Predictions
Dutch Football Predictions
Portuguese Football PredictionsFirst Half Goals — common questions
What does the First Half Goals market mean?
First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Thursday 28 September 2023?
eight fixtures met the criteria, led by AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles at 84% first-half goal probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these first half goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.