Draw No Bet Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Monday 1 January 2024
Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists eight fixtures on Monday 1 January 2024. Leeds vs Birmingham (Leeds (draw no bet)) sits top on 85% in the Championship. The shortlist runs from 85% down to 74%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Championship supplies three of the top 8, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the six fixtures on this list that have since finished, six landed the draw no bet market — 100%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Championship · England
Leeds (draw no bet)
85%
League One · England
Reading (draw no bet)
84%
Premier League · England
Liverpool (draw no bet)
84%
Championship · England
Leicester (draw no bet)
83%
League One · England
Bolton (draw no bet)
82%
Championship · England
Blackburn (draw no bet)
78%
League Two · England
Tranmere (draw no bet)
76%
League One · England
Barnsley (draw no bet)
74%
Showing top 8 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsDraw No Bet — common questions
What does the Draw No Bet market mean?
Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Monday 1 January 2024?
eight fixtures met the criteria, led by Leeds vs Birmingham (Leeds (draw no bet)) at 85% draw no bet probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.