Bolton 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Burton Albion meet at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bolton have posted 6W 1D 3L at Toughsheet Community Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burton Albion have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Bolton. A 1.40 PPG lead over Burton Albion (2.20 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bolton lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 40% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 41% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.13 xG and Burton Albion 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.361 / defence 1.158 | Burton Albion attack 0.685 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.122. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Bolton games / 70 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 65% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 14%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Burton Albion 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bolton 70% | Burton Albion 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 65% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Bolton 2.13 / Burton Albion 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.361 / def 1.158 | Burton Albion attack 0.685 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bolton (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Burton Albion xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Bolton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 January 2024 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Bolton 1 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Bolton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Burton Albion part of?
Bolton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 65% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bolton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Bolton 1W | Draws 3 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in?
Bolton (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bolton's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.69x) against Bolton's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.85
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.03
0.89
Burton Albion xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.46
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
60.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Bolton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bolton and 0.89 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bolton's recent record stands at 38W 15D 17L from 70 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 31L across 70 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bolton have managed 21W 7D 7L from 35 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 7D 20L across 35 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 38W 15D 17L in their last 70 games (1.84 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Burton Albion away?
Bolton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.00 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bolton or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 3-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bolton
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Burton Albion?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 43%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bolton) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bolton's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bolton's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Burton Albion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Burton Albion 1-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.13 xG and Burton Albion 0.89 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.36 / defence 1.16 against Burton Albion attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 65% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 14%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 41%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.