LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cherkasy Arena plays host to LNZ Cherkasy versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 2W 0D 4L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oleksandria have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 46% versus Oleksandria 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Oleksandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG and Oleksandria 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.899 / defence 1.336 | Oleksandria attack 0.883 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.197. Data: 9 LNZ Cherkasy games / 39 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 42%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Oleksandria 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 67% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 / Oleksandria 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.899 / def 1.336 | Oleksandria attack 0.883 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Oleksandria xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.90) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.88x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.56
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.57
1.41
Oleksandria xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.41 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 0.82 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.09 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Oleksandria away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.60 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.40 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 60%, Oleksandria 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 40% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 40%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 40% of games; Oleksandria in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 40% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 40% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 10, as LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG and Oleksandria 1.41 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against Oleksandria attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 42%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 46%, Oleksandria 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 PPG, Oleksandria 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.