Veres Rivne 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Avanhard plays host to Veres Rivne versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 50% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.049 / defence 1.037 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.796 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.199. Data: 37 Veres Rivne games / 8 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Veres Rivne 1.13 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.049 / def 1.037 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.796 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Veres Rivne 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 38% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (1.05) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.80x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 37/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.25
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.99 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.10 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.00 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: LNZ Cherkasy won 0-3 on 9 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Veres Rivne 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 75%, LNZ Cherkasy 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 25% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 9, as Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 40%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.10 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.