Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Suwon City FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (Championship Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 0.90 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 3 for Suwon City FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4–2 Suwon City FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% versus Suwon City FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Suwon City FC 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.53 xG and Suwon City FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.108 / defence 0.888 | Suwon City FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 33 games and Suwon City FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.19 | Draw 3.95 | Suwon City FC 3.43. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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