Suwon City FC 0-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Seoul (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Seoul are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, FC Seoul have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Suwon City FC's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with FC Seoul winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Seoul have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | FC Seoul 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and FC Seoul 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.055 / defence 1.416 | FC Seoul attack 1.011 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | FC Seoul 2.22. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | FC Seoul 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Suwon City FC 1.46 / FC Seoul 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.055 / def 1.416 | FC Seoul attack 1.011 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Seoul xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 32% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 5W.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.01x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
32%
3.12
23%
4.34
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.77
FC Seoul xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.77 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 16D 33L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 28W 21D 23L from 72 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.46 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 10W 13D 12L from 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 23W 16D 33L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 21D 23L in their last 72 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, FC Seoul 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Suwon City FC) and 49% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 63% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 49% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and FC Seoul 1.77 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.42 against FC Seoul attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, FC Seoul 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Seoul's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.18 PPG, FC Seoul 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.