Al Taawon 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al Okhdood.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Okhdood travel to Al Taawon Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Taawon — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across their last 9 road games (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.20 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2023, ended Al Taawon 1–0 Al Okhdood — a Al Taawon win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 65% versus Al Okhdood 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al Okhdood 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.045 / defence 1.096 | Al Okhdood attack 0.643 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.405. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 50 games and Al Okhdood's last 20.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 53% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.90 | Draw 3.98 | Al Okhdood 4.51. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 33% (last 9 away games).

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