Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Okhdood at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh encounter.

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Full Analysis

Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 5W 0D 5L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Riyadh (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Riyadh away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al Okhdood's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 0 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Okhdood winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 38% versus Al Riyadh 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 43% | Al Riyadh 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.79 xG and Al Riyadh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.890 / defence 0.926 | Al Riyadh attack 0.681 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.485. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Al Okhdood games / 21 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 56% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Okhdood (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 30% | Al Riyadh 60%.

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