Al Wehda Club 3-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al Taawon at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.30 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al Taawon and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Taawon trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 51% versus Al Taawon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.38 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.121 / defence 1.039 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.422. Data: 51 Al Wehda Club games / 51 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.38 / Al Taawon 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.121 / def 1.039 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al Taawon xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 29 February 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Al Wehda Club 3 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.61
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.85
1.47
Al Taawon xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.47 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 16W 10D 25L from 51 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 12L across 51 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 14W 6D 5L across 25 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.61 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.36 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Wehda Club go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Al Taawon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 60%, Al Taawon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Wehda Club) and 44% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Wehda Club's games and 60% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 44% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon finished level at 3-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.38 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 38%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 49%, Al Taawon 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.