Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Riyadh and Al-Raed meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Raed (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Al-Raed arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al-Raed edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Al Riyadh 0–3 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 45% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al-Raed 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.04 xG and Al-Raed 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.671 / defence 0.977 | Al-Raed attack 0.955 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.405. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 20 games and Al-Raed's last 50.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.43 | Draw 3.51 | Al-Raed 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).

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