Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.30. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Abha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Abha and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Abha trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Abha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Abha 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.80 xG and Abha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.731 / defence 1.105 | Abha attack 0.955 / defence 1.691. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.403. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.691 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Al-Fayha games / 50 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Abha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Abha 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 30% | Abha 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Abha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Fayha 1.80 / Abha 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.731 / def 1.105 | Abha attack 0.955 / def 1.691 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Abha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Al-Fayha 3 - 2 Abha.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Abha part of?
Al-Fayha vs Abha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 44% chance of winning, Abha a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Fayha and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 3 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.98
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.28
1.48
Abha xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.48 for Abha, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 16D 21L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 14W 6D 30L from 50 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.10 PPG, Abha on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L).
On the road, Abha have gone 3W 1D 21L from 25 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.12 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 13W 16D 21L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Abha have gone 14W 6D 30L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Abha away?
Al-Fayha's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.96 PPG; Abha away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 36%, Abha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Fayha) and 68% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 52% of games; Abha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 52% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Fayha's matches and 68% of Abha's.
Do Al-Fayha and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Abha in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Abha 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Abha 3-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.80 xG and Abha 1.48 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Abha attack 0.95 / defence 1.69, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Abha 31%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Abha 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG, Abha 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.