Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Raed to Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Al-Raed and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2023, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4–0 Al-Raed — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Al-Raed trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% versus Al-Raed 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Al-Raed 67%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al-Raed 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.492 / defence 0.589 | Al-Raed attack 0.925 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.421. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.492 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.589), which is pulling Al-Raed's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 49 games and Al-Raed's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 | Draw 5.25 | Al-Raed 8.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 / Al-Raed 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.492 / def 0.589 | Al-Raed attack 0.925 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al-Raed xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 69% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.49x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 49 games and Al-Raed's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.25
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.94
0.78
Al-Raed xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
74.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.78 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 49 games, going 34W 10D 5L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (14W 11D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 17W 5D 2L across their last 24 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 34W 10D 5L in their last 49 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Raed 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Raed have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2025: Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Raed 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 62% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Raed in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 54% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 62% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al-Raed 0.78 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.59 against Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 12%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, Al-Raed 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.