Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Raed 2W, Al-Fateh 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 55% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 70% | Al-Fateh 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.929 / defence 1.246 | Al-Fateh attack 1.223 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.388. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Al-Raed games / 40 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 1.85. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 40% | Al-Fateh 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Raed 1.39 / Al-Fateh 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.929 / def 1.246 | Al-Fateh attack 1.223 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Al-Fateh xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 25% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.22x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
25%
4.01
21%
4.79
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.51
2.12
Al-Fateh xG
4.01
25%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
12%
8.30
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
3%
33.27
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.12 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 9D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.58 PPG from 40 outings (19W 6D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Raed's home form reads 6W 3D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.85 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 19W 6D 15L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 0-3 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
5
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 55%, Al-Fateh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Raed and 85% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Raed's games and 60% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Raed's matches and 85% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 2.12 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Al-Fateh attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 54%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 70%, Al-Fateh 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.