Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al Okhdood at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dhamak Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.00 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Okhdood trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 80% and Al Okhdood 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 60% | Al Okhdood 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.49 xG and Al Okhdood 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.098 / defence 0.996 | Al Okhdood attack 0.798 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.396. Data: 40 Damac games / 10 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 46% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 28%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al Okhdood 3.57. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 46% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Damac 1.49 / Al Okhdood 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.098 / def 0.996 | Al Okhdood attack 0.798 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Damac (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Okhdood xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Damac vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 26 October 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Damac 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Damac vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Okhdood part of?
Damac vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 46% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Damac and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.88
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Damac xG
Total xG
2.60
1.11
Al Okhdood xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Damac and 1.11 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 7L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.00 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Damac are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.70 PPG overall record — Al Okhdood travel well.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Okhdood's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Damac's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Damac at 100%, Al Okhdood at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Damac) and 25% (Al Okhdood).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Damac's games and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Damac's recent games and 25% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.49 xG and Al Okhdood 1.11 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 46% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 60%, Al Okhdood 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.00 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.