Al-Hazm 4-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Raed meet at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.33 PPG across their last 9 games: 0W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%). Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 home games (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.33 for Al-Hazm, 0.50 for Al-Raed — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2022, ended Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-Raed — a Al-Hazm win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 78% versus Al-Raed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Raed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.95 xG and Al-Raed 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.738 / defence 1.440 | Al-Raed attack 0.701 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.417. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Al-Raed's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.440 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 9 games and Al-Raed's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.00 | Draw 3.73 | Al-Raed 2.07. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Hazm's last 4 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 75% (last 4 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al-Hazm 0.95 / Al-Raed 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.738 / def 1.440 | Al-Raed attack 0.701 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Raed xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hazm 4 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 25% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.70x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Al-Hazm's last 9 games and Al-Raed's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.73
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
Al-Raed xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.43 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 3D 6L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.56 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hazm's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across their last 4 home games, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (0W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Hazm (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Raed have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2024: Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Raed's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 75%, Al-Raed 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Hazm) and 25% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 50%; Al-Raed in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hazm and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 25% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 25% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 25% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Raed 4-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.95 xG and Al-Raed 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.74 / defence 1.44 against Al-Raed attack 0.70 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 56%, Al-Raed 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.33 PPG, Al-Raed 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.