Al-Ittihad FC 2-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Hazm travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hazm have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Hazm away from home: 0W 2D 3L from their last 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Hazm 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2022, ended Al-Ittihad FC 3–0 Al-Hazm — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 30% versus Al-Hazm 80%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Hazm 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 xG and Al-Hazm 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.025 / defence 0.891 | Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.374. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 40 games and Al-Hazm's last 10.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.48 | Draw 5.46 | Al-Hazm 7.17. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 5 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 80% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 / Al-Hazm 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.025 / def 0.891 | Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 26 October 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 68% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 40 games and Al-Hazm's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.46
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.22
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
70.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.94 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 2D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 80%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Hazm.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Hazm 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al-Hazm).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 xG and Al-Hazm 0.94 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.47, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Hazm 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.