Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 60% of Al-Raed's (from Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al-Raed and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–1 Al-Raed — a Al-Ettifaq win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Al-Raed 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.152 / defence 1.043 | Al-Raed attack 0.822 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.439. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 41 games and Al-Raed's last 41.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.86 | Draw 4.53 | Al-Raed 4.15. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 60% (last 10 away games).

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