Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fateh and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–5 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Fateh 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al-Fateh 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 xG and Al-Fateh 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.870 / defence 0.788 | Al-Fateh attack 0.978 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.481. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 21 games and Al-Fateh's last 51.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.71 | Draw 3.17 | Al-Fateh 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 away games).

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