Damac 4-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Damac at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Damac welcome Al-Hazm to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 0W 3D 5L from 8 outings — 0.38 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Damac at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.38. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Damac register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Damac have won 2, Al-Hazm 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 75% and Al-Hazm 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Hazm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.89 xG and Al-Hazm 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.944 / defence 0.999 | Al-Hazm attack 0.718 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.440. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Damac games / 8 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 20%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Damac (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al-Hazm 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Damac 1.89 / Al-Hazm 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.944 / def 0.999 | Al-Hazm attack 0.718 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Damac (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Hazm xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 5 October 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Damac 4 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hazm part of?
Damac vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 57% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Hazm in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.38 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.49
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Damac xG
Total xG
2.92
1.03
Al-Hazm xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
32.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Damac and 1.03 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 4D 3L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Damac's home form reads 0W 3D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.75 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hazm away?
Damac's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hazm?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Damac at 100%, Al-Hazm at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Damac) and 33% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Damac's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Damac's recent games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Damac run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Hazm 4-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.89 xG and Al-Hazm 1.03 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Al-Hazm attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 20%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Hazm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Damac (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.