Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 1D 2L across their last 9 — 2.11 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 home games — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al Wehda Club have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Wehda Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. A 0.81 PPG lead over Al Wehda Club (2.11 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% versus Al Wehda Club 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al Wehda Club 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.983 / defence 0.854 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.917 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.433. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 9 games and Al Wehda Club's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 | Draw 4.38 | Al Wehda Club 4.33. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% (last 5 home games) | Al Wehda Club 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 / Al Wehda Club 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.983 / def 0.854 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.917 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club FAQs
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.92x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 9 games and Al Wehda Club's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.38
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.96
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
27.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.12 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 6W 1D 2L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.89 scored and 1.89 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah (Home) vs Al Wehda Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2025: Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%, Al Wehda Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 75% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 75% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 100% of Al Wehda Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Wehda Club 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Wehda Club 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.