Zenit 1-1 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zenit face Lokomotiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zenit welcome Lokomotiv to Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Zenit at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lokomotiv stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Zenit) versus 2.40 (Lokomotiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Zenit, 2 for Lokomotiv and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Zenit 1–3 Lokomotiv — a Lokomotiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Lokomotiv trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 43% versus Lokomotiv 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 48% | Lokomotiv 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.48 xG and Lokomotiv 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.097 / defence 0.657 | Lokomotiv attack 1.244 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.319. Lokomotiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.08. Zenit have a tight defence (rating 0.657), which is pulling Lokomotiv's projected output down. Data: built from Zenit's last 42 games and Lokomotiv's last 42.
Result probabilities: Zenit 43% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 25%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.30 | Draw 3.15 | Lokomotiv 4.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Zenit 20% (last 10 home games) | Lokomotiv 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 43% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Zenit 1.48 / Lokomotiv 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.097 / def 0.657 | Lokomotiv attack 1.244 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lokomotiv xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Lokomotiv FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Zenit vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Lokomotiv?
Zenit 1 - 1 Lokomotiv.
Where is Zenit vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Lokomotiv part of?
Zenit vs Lokomotiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 43% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zenit and Lokomotiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zenit vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.10x the league average against Lokomotiv's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lokomotiv's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 42 games and Lokomotiv's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.15
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.55
1.08
Lokomotiv xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Lokomotiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zenit and 1.08 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 26W 8D 8L from 42 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Lokomotiv, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 8L across 42 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zenit on 2.05 PPG, Lokomotiv on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 13W 3D 4L from their last 20 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lokomotiv's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across their last 20 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded. Lokomotiv's attacking output running into Zenit's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs Lokomotiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Zenit vs Lokomotiv Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 26W 8D 8L in their last 42 games (2.05 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 23W 11D 8L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Lokomotiv away?
Zenit's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.10 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Zenit or Lokomotiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Lokomotiv in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Zenit won Zenit 5-0 Lokomotiv.
Zenit's record when hosting Lokomotiv specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
3
Draws
2
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Lokomotiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Lokomotiv?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 5, Lokomotiv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Lokomotiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Zenit 2-1 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Lokomotiv?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 35%, Lokomotiv 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Zenit) and 60% (Lokomotiv).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Lokomotiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Lokomotiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Zenit's recent matches and 65% of Lokomotiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and Lokomotiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Zenit's recent games and 60% of Lokomotiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Lokomotiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Zenit's recent matches and 80% of Lokomotiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit and Lokomotiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Zenit and Lokomotiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.48 xG and Lokomotiv 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.10 / defence 0.66 against Lokomotiv attack 1.24 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 43% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 25%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 48%, Lokomotiv 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.05 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.