Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod host Spartak Moscow at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 10:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nizhny Novgorod) versus 1.60 (Spartak Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nizhny Novgorod, 2 for Spartak Moscow and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nizhny Novgorod trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 50% versus Spartak Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 45% | Spartak Moscow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.09 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.838 / defence 1.338 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.901 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.286. Data: 42 Nizhny Novgorod games / 42 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 24% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 45%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 2.22. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Spartak Moscow 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 24% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.09 / Spartak Moscow 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.838 / def 1.338 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.901 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Spartak Moscow xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 2 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 24% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 3 | Spartak Moscow 2W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
24%
4.16
31%
3.22
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.65
1.55
Spartak Moscow xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
19.61
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.55 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 12W 8D 22L from 42 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 11L across 42 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.38 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 12W 8D 22L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.25 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spartak Moscow go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Spartak Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
6
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 55%, Spartak Moscow 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 40% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 45% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 40% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.09 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.55 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 24% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 45%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 45%, Spartak Moscow 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.