Krylia Sovetov 1-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 28 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 3D 4L at Solidarnost Samara Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 1.60 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, FC Krasnodar 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 55% versus FC Krasnodar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 55% | FC Krasnodar 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.76 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.821 / defence 1.013 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.369 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Krylia Sovetov games / 42 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 60%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 8.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Krasnodar 1.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 30% | FC Krasnodar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.76 / FC Krasnodar 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.821 / def 1.013 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.369 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.83
FC Krasnodar xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 28 October 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 12% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 60% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 2 | FC Krasnodar 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.82x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.37x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
12%
8.05
28%
3.63
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.59
1.83
FC Krasnodar xG
8.05
12%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
2%
50.04
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.83 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.05 PPG from 42 outings (25W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.67 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 25W 11D 6L in their last 42 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
5
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 52%, FC Krasnodar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Krylia Sovetov) and 43% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 38%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 52% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 43% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.76 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.37 / defence 0.72, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 60%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 55%, FC Krasnodar 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.