Akhmat 1-5 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Zenit at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Akhmat's home record at Akhmat Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Zenit have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 1.80 PPG, Zenit 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 1, Zenit 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Zenit winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 60% versus Zenit 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 59% | Zenit 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.24 xG and Zenit 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.999 / defence 1.271 | Zenit attack 1.111 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.246. Data: 58 Akhmat games / 58 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 27% | Draw 23% | Zenit 50%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Zenit 2.00. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | Zenit 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 27% | Draw 23% | Zenit 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Akhmat 1.24 / Zenit 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.999 / def 1.271 | Zenit attack 1.111 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Zenit (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Zenit xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Zenit kick off?
Akhmat vs Zenit kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Akhmat 1 - 5 Zenit.
Where is Akhmat vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Zenit part of?
Akhmat vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 27% chance of winning, Zenit a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Akhmat and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
Record (5 meetings): Akhmat 1W | Draws 1 | Zenit 3W.
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in?
Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Zenit (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.00x the league average against Zenit's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
27%
3.70
23%
4.27
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.00
1.76
Zenit xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
5%
21.47
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.76 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 10D 23L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.09 PPG from 58 outings (36W 13D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Akhmat's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.90 points per game from 29 outings (15W 10D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.05 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Current Season
Zenit
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 25W 10D 23L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Zenit have gone 36W 13D 9L in their last 58 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.45 PPG; Zenit away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Zenit in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 2, Zenit have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 59%, Zenit 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Akhmat) and 41% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zenit in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Akhmat's games and 55% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Akhmat's recent games and 41% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Zenit tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zenit in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 1-5 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.24 xG and Zenit 1.76 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.00 / defence 1.27 against Zenit attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 27% | Draw 23% | Zenit 50%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 59%, Zenit 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.