Estoril 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estoril face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Famalicao away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Estoril against 1.30 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Estoril, 2 for Famalicao and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Estoril 1–1 Famalicao — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus Famalicao 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 48% | Famalicao 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.27 xG and Famalicao 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.889 / defence 0.929 | Famalicao attack 0.965 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.286. Data: built from Estoril's last 64 games and Famalicao's last 64.
Result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 33%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.58 | Draw 3.59 | Famalicao 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 40% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Estoril 1.27 / Famalicao 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.889 / def 0.929 | Famalicao attack 0.965 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Estoril (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Famalicao xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Famalicao kick off?
Estoril vs Famalicao kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Estoril vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Famalicao part of?
Estoril vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 39% chance of winning, Famalicao a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Famalicao will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Estoril vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.89) and Famalicao's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.96x) against Estoril's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 64 games and Famalicao's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.42
1.15
Famalicao xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Estoril and 1.15 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 18W 11D 35L from 64 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 26L across 64 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Estoril against 1.25 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 14W 3D 15L from their last 32 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 7W 10D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
Estoril (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
❓ Estoril vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 18W 11D 35L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 21W 17D 26L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Famalicao away?
Estoril's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.41 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Estoril and Famalicao, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won Famalicao 4-0 Estoril on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 38%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estoril) and 47% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Estoril's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estoril's recent games and 47% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Estoril's recent matches and 66% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.27 xG and Famalicao 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Famalicao attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 39% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 33%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 48%, Famalicao 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Famalicao's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.02 PPG, Famalicao 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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