GIL Vicente 2-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arouca (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIL Vicente face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Arouca (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arouca have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Arouca arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Arouca hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Arouca winning.
It is worth noting that Arouca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 48% versus Arouca 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 47% | Arouca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.91 xG and Arouca 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.765 / defence 1.081 | Arouca attack 1.245 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.284. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 GIL Vicente games / 64 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Arouca 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Arouca (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | Arouca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG GIL Vicente 0.91 / Arouca 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.765 / def 1.081 | Arouca attack 1.245 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Arouca (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Arouca xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 20% chance of winning, Arouca a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Record (5 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 2 | Arouca 3W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.77) and Arouca's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.25x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
20%
5.11
24%
4.19
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.64
1.73
Arouca xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
28.81
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.73 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 18W 14D 32L from 64 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 22L across 64 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 11W 12D 9L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.36 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 18W 14D 32L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Arouca have gone 28W 14D 22L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.41 PPG; Arouca away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for GIL Vicente and 38% for Arouca.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 31% of games; Arouca in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 38% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Arouca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Arouca finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.91 xG and Arouca 1.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Arouca attack 1.25 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Arouca 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arouca arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.