Jong PSV U21 0-5 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours NAC Breda (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong PSV U21 face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 4 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 2D 5L at PSV Campus De Herdgang — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
NAC Breda arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to NAC Breda, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with NAC Breda winning.
It is worth noting that NAC Breda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and NAC Breda 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 67% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.45 xG and NAC Breda 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.933 / defence 1.301 | NAC Breda attack 1.263 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.360. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Jong PSV U21 games / 54 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 55%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | NAC Breda 1.82. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 4 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.45 / NAC Breda 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.933 / def 1.301 | NAC Breda attack 1.263 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.23
NAC Breda xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 December 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 5 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 24% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.93) and NAC Breda's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.26x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.23.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
24%
4.14
21%
4.75
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.69
2.23
NAC Breda xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
11%
9.34
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
3%
38.68
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.23 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 11D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 24W 9D 21L from 54 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.50 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 11W 4D 12L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.70 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 74%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.26 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, NAC Breda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Jong PSV U21, 74% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Jong PSV U21 and 74% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jong PSV U21's games and 74% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 74% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong PSV U21 0-5 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.45 xG and NAC Breda 2.23 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 2.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against NAC Breda attack 1.26 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 55%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 67%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.