Roda 2-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Roda are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Roda, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 1–5 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and Jong PSV U21 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 49% | Jong PSV U21 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.74 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.032 / defence 0.681 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.942 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Roda's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Roda games / 55 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 57% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 18%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Roda (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Jong PSV U21 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 57% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 1.74 / Jong PSV U21 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.032 / def 0.681 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.942 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Roda (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Roda 2 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 57% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 3 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.03) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.95
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Roda xG
Total xG
2.62
0.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
31.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Roda and 0.88 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Roda have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 12D 22L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 17W 11D 27L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.36 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.47 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 11D 27L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Roda's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.63 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
3
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 63%, Jong PSV U21 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Roda) and 59% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Roda's games and 63% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 59% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Roda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong PSV U21 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong PSV U21 2-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.74 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.88 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.68 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 57% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 18%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 49%, Jong PSV U21 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.36 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.