Cambuur 2-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambuur face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and FC Eindhoven meet at Cambuur Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cambuur's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cambuur's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 52% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 68% | FC Eindhoven 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.63 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.154 / defence 1.176 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.938 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Data: built from Cambuur's last 16 games and FC Eindhoven's last 54.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.52 | Draw 4.05 | FC Eindhoven 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Cambuur 1.63 / FC Eindhoven 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.154 / def 1.176 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.938 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Cambuur 2 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 40% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cambuur and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.94x) against Cambuur's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 16 games and FC Eindhoven's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.05
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.17
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.54 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 7D 30L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.34 PPG from 50 outings (17W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 7W 2D 16L across their last 25 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.28 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Cambuur (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 13W 7D 30L in their last 50 games (0.92 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 16D 17L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.92 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won FC Eindhoven 0-3 Cambuur on 29 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
1
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Cambuur 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC Eindhoven?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 44%, FC Eindhoven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Cambuur and 48% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and FC Eindhoven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambuur's recent matches and 56% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Cambuur's matches and 48% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Cambuur and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Cambuur's recent matches and 44% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and FC Eindhoven finished level at 2-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.63 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.54 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 40% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 68%, FC Eindhoven 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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