Den Bosch 3-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet in-form Jong Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jong Ajax away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Jong Ajax arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Den Bosch's games and 70% of Jong Ajax's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Jong Ajax edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Den Bosch 4–2 Jong Ajax — a Den Bosch win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 56% and Jong Ajax 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 67% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.799 / defence 1.314 | Jong Ajax attack 0.894 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.81. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Den Bosch's projected output up. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Ajax's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 54 games and Jong Ajax's last 54.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 4.27 | Jong Ajax 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong Ajax (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Den Bosch 1.81 / Jong Ajax 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.799 / def 1.314 | Jong Ajax attack 0.894 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch 3 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.80x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.89x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 54 games and Jong Ajax's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.27
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.45
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.64 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 13W 6D 35L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Jong Ajax's form line: 16W 14D 24L from 54 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.15 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 27 home games (9W 4D 14L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 6D 16L from their last 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.72 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 72%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 35L in their last 54 games (0.83 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Ajax away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.15 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Den Bosch, 74% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Den Bosch and 67% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Den Bosch's games and 74% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 82% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Jong Ajax finished level at 3-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, Jong Ajax 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.83 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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