Dordrecht 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 6D 1L at Matchoholic Stadion — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 1.70 PPG versus Roda's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Dordrecht's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 58% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.57 xG and Roda 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.308 / defence 1.197 | Roda attack 0.911 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Roda's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Dordrecht games / 54 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 80% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Dordrecht 1.57 / Roda 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.308 / def 1.197 | Roda attack 0.911 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Roda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.31) and Roda's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.99
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.09
1.52
Roda xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.52 for Roda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 16D 23L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.09 PPG, Roda on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Roda have gone 6W 7D 12L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.42 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 14W 16D 23L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.20 PPG; Roda away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Dordrecht and 48% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 28% of games; Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 56% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Dordrecht's matches and 48% of Roda's.
Do Dordrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Roda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Roda 2-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.57 xG and Roda 1.52 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.20 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Roda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.09 PPG, Roda 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.