Vancouver FC 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates York United at 54%, yet in-form Vancouver FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vancouver FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vancouver FC and York United meet at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre in Canadian Premier League (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 04:30 UK time.
Current Form
Vancouver FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Vancouver FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over York United (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Vancouver FC's games and 90% of York United's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 56% versus York United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 59% | York United 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.45 xG and York United 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 1.002 / defence 1.324 | York United attack 1.233 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.341. York United have an above-average attack rating of 1.233, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing York United's projected output up. Data: built from Vancouver FC's last 27 games and York United's last 55.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 25% | Draw 20% | York United 54%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.97 | Draw 4.89 | York United 1.84. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.45 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vancouver FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vancouver FC 70% (last 10 home games) | York United 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 04:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 25% | Draw 20% | York United 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Vancouver FC 1.45 / York United 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 1.002 / def 1.324 | York United attack 1.233 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: York United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
2.19
York United xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Vancouver FC vs York United kick off?
Vancouver FC vs York United kicked off at 04:30 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs York United?
Vancouver FC 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Vancouver FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs York United part of?
Vancouver FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 25% chance of winning, York United a 54% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Vancouver FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vancouver FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against York United's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.23x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from Vancouver FC's last 27 games and York United's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
25%
3.97
20%
4.89
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.64
2.19
York United xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
11%
8.92
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
3%
35.39
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 2.19 for York United, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Vancouver FC have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 5D 14L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.30 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vancouver FC have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 13 home games (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, York United have gone 6W 3D 4L from their last 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
York United
Blended
Vancouver FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vancouver FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Vancouver FC and York United in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while York United have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.38 PPG; York United away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Vancouver FC and York United, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-0 Vancouver FC on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
6
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Vancouver FC have won 2, York United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2026: Vancouver FC 3-3 York United.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Vancouver FC, 77% for York United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Vancouver FC and 77% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vancouver FC and York United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vancouver FC's games and 77% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vancouver FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vancouver FC's matches and 77% of York United's.
Do Vancouver FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 69% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Vancouver FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 1-2 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.45 xG and York United 2.19 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against York United attack 1.23 / defence 1.13, drawn from 27/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 25% | Draw 20% | York United 54%, with York United to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 59%, York United 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.07 PPG, York United 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.