Forge 3-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacific FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Forge have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pacific FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 44% versus Pacific FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 44% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.042 / defence 0.963 | Pacific FC attack 1.223 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.366. Pacific FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Forge games / 53 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 29% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Forge 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 2.22. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Forge 60% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 29% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Forge 1.26 / Pacific FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.042 / def 0.963 | Pacific FC attack 1.223 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Pacific FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 3 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 29% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.04x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (1.22x) against Forge's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.85
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Forge xG
Total xG
2.87
1.61
Pacific FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Forge and 1.61 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 15D 14L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.58 PPG from 55 outings (24W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Forge against 1.58 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 26W 15D 14L in their last 55 games (1.69 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 24W 15D 16L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.67 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 56%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Forge) and 44% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Forge's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Forge's recent games and 44% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 3-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Pacific FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 29% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 45%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 44%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, Pacific FC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.