Pacific FC 1-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Play-off sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 October 2023, 03:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pacific FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, York United in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 52% versus York United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.27 xG and York United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.911 / defence 1.005 | York United attack 1.235 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.312. York United have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Pacific FC games / 56 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | York United 2.17. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 60% | York United 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Play-off | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Oct 2023, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pacific FC 1.27 / York United 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.911 / def 1.005 | York United attack 1.235 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: York United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
York United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 03:00 on Thursday 12 October 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Play-off fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 30% chance of winning, York United a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. York United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against York United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.11
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.63
York United xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.63 for York United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 22W 15D 19L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.45 PPG, York United on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.44 PPG; York United away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 56%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacific FC) and 59% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pacific FC's games and 56% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacific FC's recent games and 59% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, York United in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat York United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Play-off, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.27 xG and York United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against York United attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46%, with York United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, York United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.45 PPG, York United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.