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Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.00 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights