Al-Jazira 2-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Jazira (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Jazira's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Al Nasr in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.35 xG and Al Nasr 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.101 / defence 1.040 | Al Nasr attack 0.745 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.844. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Jazira games / 2 Al Nasr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 32% | Al Nasr 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Al Nasr 6.25. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 32% | Al Nasr 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Jazira 1.35 / Al Nasr 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.101 / def 1.040 | Al Nasr attack 0.745 / def 1.388 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.844 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Al Nasr xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Al-Jazira 2 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 51% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Al Nasr (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.10x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.74x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
51%
1.94
32%
3.09
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.00
0.65
Al Nasr xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
4%
23.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 0.65 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 2.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Al Nasr's attacking output running into Al-Jazira's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Al Nasr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Jazira or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
1
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Al Nasr have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al Nasr 3-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 0% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 100% of Al Nasr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Nasr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.35 xG and Al Nasr 0.65 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Al Nasr attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 32% | Al Nasr 16%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 0%, Al Nasr 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.